> Quick view: TNB's published AFA outlook for September to November 2026 is +5.00 to +7.50 sen/kWh, up from +3.80 sen actually charged in August and +3.59 sen in July. But Single Buyer states that domestic customers using 600 kWh a month or less are not affected by AFA at all — around 85% of households, who are also exempt from the RM10 retail charge and the 8% SST. A forecast is not a declared rate; September's figure is confirmed at the start of the month.

The number that is about to move

Malaysia's electricity market operator, Single Buyer, publishes a monthly page explaining the fuel adjustment on your bill. Read on 21 August 2026, it says two things that matter for the next quarter.

First, the current charge. The AFA for August 2026 is a surcharge of RM452 million — equivalent to 4.28 sen per kWh. Of that, the Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik (KWIE) absorbs 11%, or RM51 million and 0.48 sen per kWh, so the amount actually passed through to consumers is RM401 million, or 3.80 sen per kWh. That is up from 3.59 sen in July, itself up from 2.59 sen the month before.

Second, the outlook. From September to November 2026 the projected AFA is +5.00 to +7.50 sen/kWh — above August's actual figure, and in the upper half of that range, roughly double it.

Every AFA rate declared in 2026

The AFA is declared monthly by the Energy Commission (Suruhanjaya Tenaga, ST), normally published on the first day of the month it applies to. The run of declared rates this year is the best argument against budgeting a whole year on any single month's figure — it was still a rebate as recently as April:

  • January 2026: −4.99 sen/kWh (rebate)
  • February 2026: −2.77 sen/kWh (rebate)
  • March 2026: −2.15 sen/kWh (rebate)
  • April 2026: −0.47 sen/kWh (rebate)
  • May 2026: +1.38 sen/kWh (surcharge)
  • June 2026: +2.59 sen/kWh (surcharge)
  • July 2026: +3.59 sen/kWh (surcharge)
  • August 2026: +3.80 sen/kWh (surcharge)

That is 8.79 sen/kWh of movement in eight months, from January's rebate to August's surcharge. As of 25 August 2026 the September rate had not been declared; on the pattern above, it lands on 1 September. ## Why a surcharge at all

The AFA is not a tax and not a price rise decided by anyone monthly. It is an automatic comparison: the actual fuel cost of generating electricity this month against the base fuel cost written into the tariff. Above base means a surcharge; below base means a rebate.

The base prices Single Buyer publishes are 97 USD per metric tonne for coal — RM19.14 per mmBTU at an exchange rate of 4.307 — and RM35 and RM46 per mmBTU for Tier 1 and Tier 2 gas.

For August 2026 the declared figures were:

  • Coal: 131.71 USD/MT, which at the August exchange rate of 4.0557 RM/USD works out to 24.48 RM/mmBTU — well above the RM19.14 base.
  • Gas Tier 1: 31.71 RM/mmBTU — *below* its RM35 base.
  • Gas Tier 2: 60.42 RM/mmBTU — well above its RM46 base.

There is a second component most people never see. The AFA also carries a true-up for generation costs a few months earlier. Single Buyer attributes part of August's figure to May 2026, when actual generation cost came in 1% above forecast on lower-than-expected sales and heavier generation from coal, gas, hydro and solar. Distillate — the expensive alternate fuel — was needed on only one day that month, which is the system working as intended.

The contradiction worth naming

Single Buyer's own outlook commentary says fuel prices are trending downward, and gives the forecast inputs: coal at about 121 USD/MT against a prior forecast of about 129, and Tier 2 gas at about 57 RM/mmBTU against a prior forecast of about 80. The forecast, dated 3 July 2026, is built on a "base case" scenario the page labels *emerging conflict*, with reference to the US–Israel–Iran situation.

Yet the projected AFA range for those same months is higher than August's actual charge.

Both statements can be true at once — falling prices that are still above base still produce a surcharge, and the true-up can push a month's figure either way — but it is worth saying plainly rather than glossing over: the published outlook points up while the published fuel commentary points down. Treat the range as a planning signal, not a bill. The declared AFA for September is confirmed at the start of the month.

The 600 kWh line

Here is the part that decides whether any of this reaches you, and it is stated by Single Buyer in a single sentence repeated on its own page:

> Domestic customers with monthly consumption of 600 kWh and below will not be affected by AFA.

That applies whether the adjustment is a surcharge or a rebate. Reporting on the RP4 tariff structure puts that group at about 85% of domestic customers, and the same 600 kWh threshold also exempts them from the RM10 monthly retail charge and the 8% SST.

So the practical question is not "how much is the AFA" but "where does my household sit against 600 kWh". Your last few bills answer it, and so does the consumption history in the myTNB app.

Charged on all of it, not just the excess

This is the part that catches people crossing the line for the first time. The Energy Commission words the exemption as a whole-account test: AFA is waived for total consumption of 600 kWh and below a month. It is not a block rate. Use 600 kWh and you pay no AFA on any unit. Use 601 kWh and the surcharge applies to all 601, not to the single unit over the line.

The 8% SST behaves differently — it is reported to apply only to usage above 600 kWh — so the two rules share a number but not a method. Worth reading against your own bill lines rather than assuming they work the same way.

What it costs in ringgit

AFA is a flat sen-per-kWh figure multiplied by the month's consumption, so the arithmetic is short. Against August's declared 3.80 sen and both ends of the 5.00 to 7.50 sen outlook:

  • 700 kWh a month: RM26.60 at 3.80 sen, rising to RM35.00 at 5.00 sen and RM52.50 at 7.50 sen — worst case about RM25.90 more than August.
  • 900 kWh a month: RM34.20 at 3.80 sen, rising to RM45.00 and RM67.50 — worst case about RM33.30 more.
  • 1,200 kWh a month: RM45.60 at 3.80 sen, rising to RM60.00 and RM90.00 — worst case about RM44.40 more.

Then the cliff itself, priced at the top of the outlook range. A household landing on 600 kWh pays RM0 AFA, RM0 retail charge and no SST. A household landing on 601 kWh pays RM45.08 of AFA on the whole 601 units, plus the RM10 retail charge, plus SST on the portion above the line. One extra kilowatt-hour, roughly RM55 of difference. If your bills sit anywhere in the 590 to 620 range, that single unit is the most expensive one you will buy all year.

How the rest of the bill is built

The RP4 regulatory period took effect on 1 July 2025 and runs to the end of 2027. It replaced the old tiered domestic block rates with separate components. As widely reported when the structure was introduced, a domestic bill is assembled from:

  • a generation charge of 27.03 sen/kWh below 1,500 kWh a month, rising to 37.03 sen/kWh above it;
  • a capacity charge of 4.55 sen/kWh;
  • a network charge of 12.85 sen/kWh;
  • a retail charge of RM10 a month, waived below 600 kWh.

Then the monthly AFA is added or deducted, and the Energy Efficiency Incentive (*Insentif Cekap Tenaga*) is applied as a sliding discount for households under 1,000 kWh a month — worth progressively more the less you use.

Read together, the design is deliberate: the components that vary with fuel and markets are the ones that switch off below 600 kWh, so the volatility lands on heavier users.

What to do with this

If you are comfortably under 600 kWh, nothing — the September range does not apply to you.

If you are near the line, the months either side of the threshold are worth watching, because crossing it adds three things at once: the retail charge, the AFA and the SST. Air-conditioning hours and a second fridge are usually where a household crosses.

If you are well above it, budget on the higher end of the outlook for September rather than August's 3.80 sen, then check the declared figure when it is published at the start of the month.

Related reads

*Sources: Single Buyer (singlebuyer.com.my), Malaysia's electricity market operator, first read 21 August 2026 and re-read 25 August 2026 with the August figures and the September-to-November outlook unchanged; TNB's published AFA figures and outlook; the Energy Commission's monthly AFA declarations for January to August 2026 as reported at the time; and contemporaneous reporting on the RP4 domestic tariff structure effective 1 July 2025. September's declared rate had not been published at the time of writing. This is a factual explainer, not financial advice.*